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Team Preview: 5th Place - UMass Minutemen
By CCT Staff | November 12, 2008
(Erik Gallant of Masslive and the MinuteBlog; Chris DiSano)
Long before their season came to an end against the Ohio State Buckeyes in the NIT Final at Madison Square Garden, the Minutemen experienced an odd mix of success and frustration during 2007-08.
Travis Ford’s team started the year 5-1, including a 107-100 win over Syracuse at the Carrier Dome. After a loss to IUPUI, UMass downed a good Marist team by fifteen and then reeled off six wins in a row, tripping up another BCS foe, Boston College, in the process. The Minutemen entered Atlantic 10 play at 11-3 after a road loss to an upstart Vanderbilt team, and at the time, had to be one of the favorites to contend for the league title.
Atlantic 10 schedule makers, may have had other designs for UMass. A tough early calendar in league play saw the Minutemen struggle through the first two weeks in February, beginning the conference slate 4-6 after a crushing loss to Fordham.
From that night forward, UMass took care of business.
The Minutemen ran off six straight wins to finish strong at 10-6; securing third place in the conference.
The 2007-08 season ultimately saw the Minutemen have their NCAA Tournament hopes dashed in a heartbreaking A-10 Tourney defeat to Charlotte, only to turn around and mount that thrilling run to the NIT Final, featuring memorable wins over Syracuse and Florida. While a chance to Dance was missed, the NIT run was great for the league and the program alike. All in all, it was UMass’ most significant postseason experience in a decade.
Probable Starters:
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Chris Lowe, 6-0, Sr.
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Ricky Harris, 6-2, Jr.
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Anthony Gurley, 6-3, So.
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Tony Gaffney, 6-8, Sr.
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Luke Bonner, 7-1, Sr.
On the Court in 2008-09:
The UMass backcourt is the best in the Atlantic 10, led by senior point guard Chris Lowe - baseline to baseline one of the quickest players in the country. Lowe is an excellent distributor and the leading returning assist man in the conference. He can dart through defenses, scores often using his nearly patented left-handed runner and can finish in traffic. His jumper is respectable and he also rebounds quite well for a player his size. Lowe may be the most indispensable player to his team in the entire conference.
Ricky Harris returns for his junior season as one of the league’s top scorers. Harris averaged 18.2 points per game last year, and should thrive in the dribble-drive-motion system of Coach Derek Kellogg. Harris is also extremely active on the defensive end. He has excellent anticipation skills and active hands. Last season, Harris notched 56 pilfers, or 1.56 per contest, and returns as one of the top five theft-men in the conference.
Expectations are also high for Wake Forest transfer Anthony Gurley. Gurley will step in and attempt to fill the shoes of 2007-08 Atlantic 10 Player of they Year Gary Forbes, another ACC transfer in his own right. The athletic Gurley should provide the Minutemen with the ever-important third scoring option. He’ll need to improve upon his 31% percentage from beyond the arc this season, and should have many opportunities to do so off of the penetration of Lowe and Harris.
Matt Glass showed he can shoot the deep ball in his freshman campaign and brings some size at 6-7 to an otherwise smallish backcourt. Also back for his sophomore season is Gary Correia. Correia provides depth behind Lowe and, as the Atlantic 10 season wore on in 2007-08, saw his minutes increase. He’ll be asked to simply maintain taking great care of the ball. Last season, Correia carried a 2.47/1, assist to turnover ratio, outstanding considering the pace at which the Minutemen play. If he can improve his shooting, he could be a nice surprise.
Freshman David Gibbs hits campus with some buzz, but at a crowded position will battle for playing time this season. The 6-4, 185 pound Gibbs has been described by many as dynamic, possessing a blend of speed, length and savvy not seen in the majority of his peers. He’s looked comfortable in exhibition play and, once he gets his feet wet, should thrive in the dribble-drive system given his ability to create for teammates.
The frontcourt is non-traditional, yet well suited UMass’ style of play. Senior Tony Gaffney, while not a typical post-player, will be trusted this season to contribute for the Minutemen. In twenty minutes per game last year, Gaffney averaged 3.2 points and 4.8 rebounds per contest. The departure of Dante Milligan and Etienne Brower means a hike in playing time for Gaffney, and he’ll be relied upon to improve his consistency and use his headiness and hustle to secure some boards. Gaffney is not a shooter (14% from three point range), but does the dirty work and can convert from close range (46% from the field). He’ll need to improve his free throw shooting - 54% - because his defense and rebounding necessitate leaving him on the floor in close games.
Starting opposite Gaffney will be Luke Bonner, from nearby Concord, New Hampshire. Bonner averaged 3.5 points and 2.5 rebounds in eleven minutes per contest last season. He enjoys hoisting shots from long-range and has experienced some success (35.6% from beyond the arc). While he should benefit with more open looks being generated off the probing drives of Lowe, Harris and Gurley within the dribble-drive system, Bonner needs to float less around the perimeter in favor of helping down low. If Bonner can double his rebounding average to 5.0 per contest, the Minutemen will gladly trade that contribution for an extra three points now and again. Bonner’s improved play in the NIT lends optimism in this regard.
Also down low will be Travon Wilcher and Tyrell Lynch. Wilcher is athletic and well-suited for style employed by Derek Kellogg. He’s likely a year away, physically, from being able to bang down low with the bigs in the Atlantic 10 on a consistent basis. He’ll provide depth this year and will bring energy to the Minutemen.
On the other hand, Tyrell Lynch has an opportunity to make a signficant impact for the UMass program. Because of his good size - 6-9, 230 lbs. - Lynch can play a major role if he shakes off the rust after sitting out 2007-08 and brings tenacity on the defensive end. He should round into form by conference play and, if he can stay out of foul trouble as he adjusts to the level of competition, should provide the Minutemen with some traditional interior scoring.
Newcomer Breakdown:
David Gibbs - A heralded incoming freshman under Derek Kellogg, Gibbs is a complete guard with a Division One frame who averaged a near triple-double during his senior season in Connecticut. Gibbs will compete with Anthony Gurley and Gary Correia for playing time, and should see his minutes increase as he adapts to the college game.
Tyrell Lynch - Lynch is a strong forward of whom productivity is expected this year. After originally being slated for Auburn, Lynch eventually enrolled at UMass last fall and sat out the 2007-08 to focus on his academics. The 6-9, 230 pound big man will be expected to provide the Minutemen with an inside presence along-side Tony Gaffney. If he can clean up opponents’ missed shots and help kickstart the UMass break, Lynch will play an important role in team success.
Travon Wilcher - A lanky forward who will bring versatility to Amherst this season, Wilcher will primarily be relied upon to play solid defense, block shots and run the floor.
Go-to-Guy: Chris Lowe gives the Minutemen a very real chance having a third straight A-10 Player of the Year on their roster. Since his arrival at UMass, Lowe has demonstrated an uncanny ability to drive through defenses and release a deadly teardrop floater, or unveil a sensational spin move to get to the rim or dish to open mates. Playing in an offensive system constructed primarily around dribble penetration will bring out the best in Lowe.
Impact Newcomer: Boston native Anthony Gurley will immediately assume a central role after transferring from Wake Forest. The 6-3 Gurley averaged 6.4 points per game at Wake playing roughly fourteen minutes per contest as a freshmen. He’ll be relied upon to ease the offensive burden carried by Lowe and Harris and has the physical ability to become an excellent defender if he brings intensity to that end on a consistent basis.
The most important newcomer however, with apologies to Gurley, is the man with the clipboard. Coach Derek Kellogg brings Final Four experience to Amherst, securing his first head-coaching gig after assisting John Calipari at Memphis. Kellogg has already proven to be the energizing presence UMass fans needed after the abrupt departure of Travis Ford. He kept all the key players in the fold and quickly signed a group of major conference transfers that will be eligible next season. Kellogg’s in-game management remains to be seen, but the group seems to have clicked with their new coach instantly.
Marquee Non-Conference Match-up: The Minutemen pull a National Championship “two-fer”, taking on runner-up Memphis on November 17, 2008 and National Champion Kansas on December 13, 2008.
Notable Positive Statistic (2007-08): The Minutemen shared the ball incredibly well, dishing 566 helpers during 2007-08. Led by Lowe, the team thrived on unselfish play. Most of the time, the assists column in the box score would tell the game story. It will once again be important and a good barometer of the team’s success.
Notable Negative Statistic (2007-08): Rebounding. An Achilles heel that has potential to cause problems once again. UMass loses its top three rebounders from last season, and senior bigs Gaffney and Bonner averaged only 7.3 rebounds per game - combined - last year.
The Minutemen will succeed if… one or more frontcourt players step-up offensively and on the glass. The team’s firepower will originate from the fantastic guards, but if the big men are a black hole, other teams will exploit the Minutemen.
Outlook: UMass’ tough non-conference schedule - with potential top-flight matchups as part of the Coaches vs. Cancer Tournament in November - in addition to games with Kansas and Memphis, could lead to a slow start. These early tests should pay dividends in the RPI and once conference play begins. UMass can be expected to contend in the upper-tier of the Atlantic 10 and another twenty-win season is within reach if the Minutemen receive yeoman’s work from their interior players to complement the high octane guards on the perimeter.
UMass has lost 53% of their rebounding and 52% of their scoring from last season. If the Minutemen are to replicate the success of last year, the work of few last year will have to be done by many in 2008-09. Gary Forbes comprised a great percentage of those totals, and Dante Milligan and Etienne Brower pulled their weight as well. This year, Kellogg’s group must maintain the commitment to defense and gang rebound; attacking the defensive glass as five, each possession.
Since the Minutemen want to push the basketball, the importance of rebounding cannot be understated. A team that thrives on scoring off high percentage shots without an opponents’ defense set, will be greatly set back by a rebounding deficient squad. One and done possessions for opponents are the key to the UMass attack, so protecting the glass on one end benefits attacking it on the other. The Minutemen guards can help in this department. While adept at getting out in the passing lanes and creating turnovers, they must play with more discipline this season and take calculated risks. This will minimize mistakes which leave the defensive glass exposed or permit opponents to drive into the teeth of a defense which possesses no real shot-blocker.
UMass is lead by top flight point guard, an excellent shooting guard and a swingman in Gurley whose best basketball is ahead of him. Tony Gaffney is also a quality frontcourt player. In order for this team to finish in the top three of the league again, players like Bonner, Tyrell Lynch and David Gibbs must supplement the ironmen.
Even if UMass is one dimensional, they still have the backcourt talent in their three guard set to outlast many teams in the league - as great guards win out more often than not. Yet the Minutemen will struggle against the balanced, elite teams. If the frontcourt provides UMass with some balance of their own, however, it will be all that is necessary for Lowe, Harris and Gurley to have this team in contention down the stretch.
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