Statistical Analysis: Is your Atlantic 10 team Inside?
By: Ray Floriani, CCT Columnist
Photo Credit: University of Rhode Island Athletics
LYNDHURST, NJ - It is a very simple metric when you look at it. ‘Inside’ was developed by Kevin Pelton, formerly of the Seattle Supersonics and now Basketball Prospectus. Ken Pomeroy, also of BP, tweaked it. Inside measures a team’s offensive tendency. The higher, positive, figures are an attribute of a team emphasizing an attack closer to the basket. The negative, as in lower numbers, denote a perimeter (as in three point shooting) club.
Inside = (FTA - 3pt. FGA) /FGA
A team that favors the perimeter game, specifically the three-pointers, is not necessarily a bad or inefficient team. Especially if they can hit those tries beyond the arc. So this is not an indictment of a team’s style of play. Rather, Inside measures a tendency. Specifically, a measure of the overall emphasis of a team’s mode of attack.
The figures calculated were for the recently completed campaign with Atlantic 10 Conference games only factored to arrive at the results.
| Team | Inside |
| Charlotte | .125 |
| St. Bonaventure | .102 |
| Duquesne | .082 |
| Xavier | .072 |
| Dayton | .048 |
| Fordham | .036 |
| La Salle | .028 |
| Temple | .006 |
| George Washington | -.011 |
| Saint Joseph's | -.012 |
| Saint Louis | -.035 |
| Rhode Island | -.035 |
| UMass | -.048 |
| Richmond | -.054 |
Observations
You choose what works best for you. St. Bonaventure, with sophomore Andrew Nicholson a threat down low, was not a surprise with a high Inside finish. Added to Nicholson’s presence was a very mediocre (33%) performance from three point range. Coach Mark Schmidt knew his team was better served in the paint rather than beyond the arc.
You can shoot the three. Duquesne by the measurement, had an inside game. Ron Everhart’s group was anything but tenuous beyond the arc. Duquesne launched 325 treys. Only Rhode Island, UMass and Richmond attempted more. The difference here was an ability to attack the basket. When the Dukes penetrated or got in the lane they had the ability to draw fouls and earn trips to the line. That ability made them appear more of an inside team while they were not afraid to shoot it from three.
Little surprise…With Fordham. Given the fact they trailed some period of time, if not all, during every game, the second half the three pointer would be utilized to attempt to climb back into contests. Looking at the situation closer, how many threes could Brenton Butler attempt? Or how many can you let him attempt? Butler was a threat from beyond the arc but a bit erratic. With a low post presence as Chris Gaston, one would be best served not completely foregoing the inside game just to desperately try to get back in the game by hoisting threes.
Transition. Rhode Island was a team that ran the break and favored transition. That did not guarantee a positive Inside figure. With transition teams like Rhody, some of their opportunities were generated from steals. Other times Jim Baron's club beat defenders down the floor or pull up from the perimeter to finish the break. In simple terms, transition teams thrive on getting easy baskets but there are a lot of times those easy baskets do not draw fouls.
Extreme makeover? Charlotte had quite a change in offensive approach. The following table shows Charlotte’s Inside numbers the previous two seasons.
| 2008 | 2009 |
| -.015 | -.085 |
In 2008 the 49ers had the perimeter oriented Leemire Goldwire and Lamont Mack. Goldwire was gone in 2009, still Charlotte favored opportunities around the arc with Mack and Ian Andersen among the most likely to attempt from long range. The addition of Shamari Spears and Chris Braswell, two inside threats, drastically altered Charlotte’s offensive emphasis this past season. In 2009 the 49ers had three players (Mack 123, Anderson 111 and Rashad Coleman 61) with over 50 three point attempts. This past season only Derrio Green (139) and Andersen (54) attempted more than 50.
The comparison. It’s good to compare against the average, but there are times you want to see how you fare in comparison to the elite. The following table shows the NCAA Final Four teams 'Inside' figures in their conference games. Their respective conference records are on the far right.
| Team | Inside | Conference Record |
| Butler | .111 | 18-0 |
| Michigan State | .097 | 14-4 |
| West Virginia | .076 | 13-5 |
| Duke | .057 | 13-3 |
Interestingly, all four teams were Inside oriented. Research has shown that teams relying heavily on the perimeter have difficulty making it to college basketball’s final weekend. That’s not to say a team (see Duke) has to be completely inside oriented to reach the Final Four.
Butler ruled the Horizon, so one can ascertain there was no need to even have to shoot a great deal of threes. The Bulldogs were dominant in the paint en route to a unblemished conference record. Duke won it all but among the Final Four teams the Blue Devils were least ‘Inside’ oriented. When a team has a Kyle Singler, Nolan Smith and Jon Scheyer as perimeter options, it makes sense to spread the defense by letting them fire from downtown.
It is not always the guards. While they weren’t afraid to try a three, Dayton was more of an Inside team. Brian Gregory’s backcourt was not really perimeter oriented. Rob Lowery attempted 59 or 20% of Dayton’s 296 threes. Mickey Perry attempted 15% of the Flyer three-pointers. Those two were the only Dayton guards with significant attempts from three. The greater percentage of the attempts behind the arc came from the frontcourt players as sophomore forward Chris Johnson (85 or 29% of the Dayton attempts).
The A-10 Final. The figures from the conference championship game in Atlantic City are noted in the table.
| Team | Score | FGA | 3Pt FGA | FTA | INSIDE |
| Temple | 56 | 47 | 14 | 14 | -.043 |
| Richmond | 52 | 53 | 19 | 5 | -.226 |
Once again this shows the team style of play. Richmond did not lose because of a -.226 Inside figure. If the Spiders hit a few more threes they win the game... but the -.226 stays the same. That figure simply showed that the Spiders, as they were throughout the A-10 campaign, were perimeter oriented. Temple was a perimeter team as well, but the figures bear out the fact Fran Dunphy’s team was a bit more proficient in getting to the line. Especially in the A-10 title game.
The final note. Calculating field goal attempts (three point attempts as well) and free throw attempts is an integral part of the formula. Shots made would not provide an accurate figure. We are not looking specifically at how efficient a team is inside or from the perimeter. Rather, we are measuring team tendencies. Do they favor the outside or attack the basket and get to the line more as an inside oriented team would? That is why using shot attempts is essential to the analysis.
* * * *
