Ice Water in the Veins
By: Chris DiSano (Member: USBWA)
Photo Credit: University of Richmond Sports Information
In late February while taking in a Charlotte 49ers game with friend John Akers of Basketball Times, we got talking about the game on a national level and, not surprisingly, the discussion led us to Kentucky's John Wall. In his one year in Lexington, Wall was praised for his play and deservedly so. Though tough to identify what elevated Wall over his peers by simply looking at a box score, unquestionably Wall had that certain "it" factor about him.
So John - Akers that is - set out to research what made Wall such a special player. Put simply, he found that Wall's numbers during the last five minutes of "close" ballgames were unparalleled. His piece can be found in the April edition of Basketball Times.
About eight weeks later, I've applied his analysis and incorporated some of my own tweaks to examine five Atlantic 10 guards in these 'close and late' situations.
Before we get to those results, a quick rundown of my methodology.
I undertook a play-by-play analysis (where available) of the last five minutes of any contest decided in regulation by five points or less. Also, every overtime game - regardless of the final spread - was included. For overtime games, stats from the last five minutes of regulation and during any overtime session were incorporated into the analysis.
In tabulating minutes played, the substitution history in play-by-play recaps is not always accurate. So if the player made an appearance during the last five minutes of any game or during an overtime session, for the sake of consistency that player was considered to have played for the entire five minutes. Finally, only regular season games are taken into account.
The players examined:
Kevin Anderson (UR), Jordan Crawford (XU), Kwamain Mitchell (SLU), Juan Fernandez (TU), and Derrio Green (CLT)
The results:
Kevin Anderson
| Game | Min | FG | 3FG | FT | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO |
| Miss St. | No Stats Avail. | ||||||||
| Fla | 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 5-7 | 1 | - | 1 | - | - |
| UNCW | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8-9 | - | - | 1 | - | - |
| Wake | 10 (OT) | 3-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - |
| SLU | No Stats Avail. | ||||||||
| Mass | 10 (OT) | 2-3 | 0-2 | 5-6 | - | - | 1 | - | 1 |
| LU | 5 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 2-4 | - | - | 3 | - | - |
| GW | 5 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | - | - | - | 1 |
| URI | 5 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | - | - | - | - | 1 |
| GW | No Stats Avail. | ||||||||
| XU | 15 (OT) | 3-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | - | 1 | - | 1 |
| UD | 5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | - | - | - | - |
| CLT | 10 (OT) | 0-0 | 2-3 | 4-4 | - | 1 | - | - | 1 |
| 75 | 14-26 | 3-10 | 28-34 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4 |
There no other way to slice it. Anderson was amazing down the stretch in ballgames. While the coaches may or may not have had the numbers on hand, they appreciated Anderson's clutch play as the clock wound down, another reason for his selection over Crawford as the Atlantic 10 Conference Player of the Year. Shooting a blistering 53.8% from the floor and a calming 82.3% from the line, the lead-guard helped preserve many victories for the Spiders along with senior David Gonzalvez, as Chris Mooney's club went 10-3 in its 13 games decided by five or fewer. Anderson even shined in two of the three games for which there were no play-by-play statistics. Against Mississippi State he sunk the game winner and he also made the go ahead jumper with 1:22 to play in a win over George Washington.
Anderson was able to find his way to the charity stripe (credit his teammates for getting him the ball in games where the Spiders led late) and maintain focus, shooting a slightly higher percentage (from 81.6 to 82.3) with the game on the line - literally and figuratively.
The assist numbers are low but not surprising. In nip-and-tuck games it was up to KA to create off the dribble and find his shot opportunities. His 65 points in 75 minutes of action is remarkable.
Jordan Crawford
| Game | Min | FG | 3FG | FT | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO |
| Baylor | 5 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | - | - | - |
| Cincy | 15 (2 OT) | 1-3 | 0-1 | 1-2 | - | - | 1 | - | 1 |
| Butler | 5 | 2-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | - | - | - | - | 1 |
| Miami (OH) | 5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 1 | - | - | - | - |
| Wake | 15 (2 OT) | 5-8 | 0-3 | 3-4 | 1 | - | 1 | - | - |
| UD | 5 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 1-2 | - | - | - | - | - |
| TU | 5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2-2 | - | - | - | - | - |
| SLU | No Stats Avail. | ||||||||
| UR | 15 (2 OT) | 0-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | - | - | - | 2 |
| 70 | 11-28 | 2-11 | 12-17 | 5 | 2 | 2 | - | 4 |
Crawford's numbers in these 'close and late' situations are below his season averages. The 39% field goal percentage and 71% free throw conversion are five and seven percent lower, respectively, than his yearly marks. But numbers can deceive. Toss out the Richmond game where he started white-hot and faded late and that 39% two-point field goal percentage jumps to 50% quickly.
The super soph from Xavier played in two less close games than Anderson, but still got 70 minutes of burn. While his 17 free throw attempts are none too shabby (and attempts were cut into by Terrell Holloway seeing the ball when XU led late), the fact that Anderson doubled that number in the equivalent of just one extra session is impressive.
And despite criticism from some regarding Crawford's decision making -- these numbers suggest otherwise. The 6-foot-4 guard coughed it up to the opposition just four times in 70 pressure-packed minutes of play, the mark of someone who cared for the ball with the game's outcome hanging in the balance.
Once again, only regular season games were used here. But we won't soon forget Crawford's performance against Kansas State in the NCAA Tournament.
Kwamain Mitchell
| Game | Min | FG | 3FG | FT | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO |
| UR | No Stats Avail | ||||||||
| DU | 15 (2 OT) | 2-2 | 0-1 | 7-8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | - |
| CLT | 10 (OT) | 0-0 | 0-3 | 6-6 | 4 | - | 1 | - | 2 |
| GW | 10 (OT) | 1-1 | 0-4 | 1-2 | - | 1 | - | - | - |
| SBU | 5 | No Stats Avail | |||||||
| LU | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4-4 | - | - | - | - | - |
| SJU | 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | - | - | - | - |
| UD | 15 (2 OT) | 0-1 | 1-5 | 5-6 | 3 | 1 | - | - | - |
| URI | No Stats Avail | ||||||||
| XU | No Stats Avail | ||||||||
| UD | 5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 1 | - | - | - | - |
| 70 | 4-7 | 1-14 | 26-30 | 10 | 3 | 2 | - | 2 |
Stats can offer glimpses of a player's game on many levels. But these confirm what we already know about Mitchell: He's a heck of a penetrator. Only a sophomore in 2009-10, Mitchell got himself to the stripe at least 30 times in nail-biters and cashed-in to the tune of 86.6%, an incredible 15 percentage points higher than his season average.
The numbers also indicate that although Mitchell did not convert from long range, just seven percent, he did not abuse the three-point shot attempt. Only 14 of his 178 three points attempts on the season came in the last five minutes of games; just 7.8%.
It's also worth noting that Mitchell dropped in the game-winner with 1.4 seconds remaining in SLU's victory over St. Bonaventure, a game for which play-by-play stats were not available.
Juan Fernandez
| Game | Min | FG | 3FG | FT | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO |
| GU | 5 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Siena | No Stats Avail | ||||||||
| PSU | 5 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 0-0 | - | - | - | - | - |
| URI | 10 (OT) | 0-4 | 1-1 | 1-2 | - | - | - | - | - |
| XU | 5 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | - | - | - | - | - |
| SJU | 10 (OT) | 0-1 | 1-1 | 3-4 | 2 | - | - | 1 | - |
| 35 | 1-7 | 2-5 | 4-6 | 2 | - | - | 1 | 1 |
Pedestrian numbers for Fernandez, who averaged 12.6 points and 3.6 assists per game during the regular season. The guard did suffer an injury in a 17-point win over Fordham, however all but one of these games (Saint Joseph's) took place before he was banged up.
His minutes in close situations are limited, but that stat which jumps off the screen is the zero assists in 35 minutes of play. With Anderson, Crawford and Mitchell - scoring guards - it's hardly news that each would prefer to take the ball to the goal or create for themselves come crunch-time. For facilitator Fernandez (the Owls' assist leader) the absence of a helper on the stat sheet is a surprise.
Derrio Green
| Game | Min | FG | 3FG | FT | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | TO |
| SBU | 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | - | - | - | 1 |
| SLU | 10 (OT) | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | - | - | - | - |
| LU | 5 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1-2 | - | - | 1 | - | - |
| GW | 5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2-2 | - | 1 | - | - | - |
| FU | 5 | 1-1 | 3-3 | 4-4 | - | - | - | - | - |
| GW | 5 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | - | 1 | - | - |
| 35 | 2-4 | 4-10 | 9-10 | 4 | 1 | 2 | - | 1 |
A pleasant story for the 'Niners in 2009-10, Green arrived from Gulf Coast C.C. and finished second on the team in scoring (13.1ppg), establishing himself as a legitimate outside threat.
These numbers are not earth-shattering but do suggest that Green appreciated his role and deferred to the upperclassmen. The 40% shooting from deep on 10 attempts is judicious, and the nine of 10 conversion rate from the line is an asset for the Niners, particularly when considering that Green did not often create his offense by putting the ball on the deck.
Though he did most of his damage in an explosive final five minutes against Fordham, that very stat line exhibits what is so intriguing about Green. He can be electrifying and score in bunches, something the Niners hope to see much more of - from the now veteran - come 2010-11.
* * * *
Special thanks to espn.com for play-by-play recaps used in compiling statistics
